Research Interests
Coral reefs are one of
the most species-rich ecosystems on earth and studies estimate that reefs
provide a habitat for 10% of all species on earth (Reaka-Kudla, 1997). Moreover,
the combined monetary value of coral reef resources such as food, tourism, and
protection from coastal erosion provided by coral reefs is estimated at about
$375 billion each year (Constanza, 1997; Bryant et al., 1998). Human activities
such as coastal development, destructive fishing practices (dynamite, cyanide,
dredging), overexploitation of resources, marine pollution, increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and land-use related runoff threaten fifty-eight percent of worldÕs
coral reefs (Bryant et al., 1998).
Increasing ocean temperatures threaten reefs as well; increased
temperatures lead to coral bleaching, and bleaching causes mass mortality (Brown and Suharsono 1995)
and is projected to occur annually
on reefs in most tropical oceans in 30-50 years (based on a doubling of carbon
dioxide levels by 2100, Hoegh-Guldberg-1999).
Tropical cyclones
damage coral reefs by wave action, by a decrease in salinity, by an increase in
nutrients, and by an increase in sedimentation rates on a reef (Rogers, 1990; McCook 1999). These impacts can physically damage corals, cause stress
on corals, and bury corals. The total impact of a tropical cyclone on coral
reef ecology has not been studied extensively and the impact on deep (30-40m)
reefs has received almost no attention from marine biologists (Bak, 2005).
These impacts must
also be considered in relationship to increasing ocean temperatures. The current
increase in ocean temperatures (Barnett et al., 2005) could lead to an increase
in tropical cyclone intensity (Trenberth, 2005; Emanuel, 2003), increased
intensity can lead to more wave action, more resuspended sediment, and more
runoff. The effects of increased intensity of TCs and increased precipitation
following a tropical cyclone on coral reefs are not known.
Another area to
consider is coral bleaching, tropical cyclones, by reducing SST in their cold
wakes, might have a beneficial effect on coral reefs as well. As tropical
cyclones need warm water to form, tropical cyclones are prone to occur near
areas where conditions are favorable to coral bleaching. Vertical mixing during
a tropical cyclone transports deep cool water to the surface, and thus cooling
the coral reef vecinity, and possibly ending or preventing a thermal bleaching
event. This effect of tropical cyclones has yet to be quantified.
A significant lack of
data hinders current knowledge of the impact of tropical cyclones on coral
reefs, and because tropical cyclone regimes might be changing, a growing need
exists to fill this gap in our knowledge.
In order to
address these gaps in our understanding we will (1) quantify the effects of
tropical cyclones on reef ecology, and (2) use these data to predict the impact
of tropical cyclones on coral reefs in a globally warming world.
Current research
To quantify historical TC impact on bleaching events, remote
sensing SST data, from NOAA OISST, TMI and the ERA-40 data set will be
analyzed. Bleaching thresholds (temperature anomalies and duration of anomalies
until bleaching is likely to occur) will be calculated for coral reef areas.
The analysis of SST data obtained from the datasets, a month before, during and
after a TC passes within 100km of a reef, will make it possible to quantify the
influence of TCs on bleaching conditions. This analysis will show how many
times a TC has reduced sea temperature below bleaching thresholds at all global
reef locations. Temperature loggers will be placed in situ to confirm the temperature effect. Field
observations using video transects will assess the amount of bleaching before
and after the TC.
We will test our hypothesis that TCs end conditions favorable to
bleaching compared to the null hypothesis that states that all bleaching
conditions are ended for other reasons than TCs.
Diseases
It is possible to detect run-off events using remote sensing
products. We will use remote sensing to analyse the extend of run-off generated
by TCs and see if this run-off has a spatial and temporal correllation to the
occurrence of coral diseases. A dataset of coral disease occurrence in the
Florida keys has been provided by Prof. J. Porter of UGA, enabling us to
perform this analysis. Coral reefs will be inspected for diseases before and
after a TC using SCUBA diving and established reef monitoring protocols.